The remarkable turnaround at Arizona State is one game away from turning into a possible College Football Playoff berth.
After going 3-9 last season, the Sun Devils were picked to finish last place in its first season in the Big 12. Instead, they are on a four-game win streak and are at the top of the conference standings heading into the final week of the regular season. The season finale against Arizona in the battle of the Territorial Cup will be for more than just bragging rights in the state, but for Arizona State, it will be for a chance to win the conference and make the College Football Playoff.
The Big 12 is a wild mess with nine teams still with a chance to make the conference championship game next week. While there is so much possible chaos, Arizona State has one of the easiest paths of the nine teams to clinching its spot at playing in AT&T Stadium.
How does Arizona State make Big 12 championship game?
Even with four teams with a 6-2 conference record heading into Week 14, pretty much all Arizona State needs to do is beat Arizona and it’s in the Big 12 championship game. If the 6-2 teams − Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado − all win, the Sun Devils will be in.
However, there is one scenario where Arizona State wins and doesn’t make the conference championship game. This is the only scenario where Arizona State wouldn’t get in even if it wins due to the Big 12 tiebreaking procedure. It involves the very specific scenarios of:
Iowa State beats Kansas State
Colorado beats Oklahoma State
Houston beats BYU
Texas Tech beats West Virginia
Baylor beats Kansas
Cincinnati beats TCU
Who would Arizona State play in Big 12 championship game?
This is where it gets complicated. Here are the scenarios of who the Sun Devils would play depending on the results of this weekend. In all scenarios, assume Arizona State wins:
If Iowa State, BYU and Colorado win: Arizona State vs. Iowa State.
If two of Iowa State, BYU and Colorado lose: Arizona State vs. the other winner.
If Iowa State and BYU win and Colorado loses: Arizona State vs. Iowa State.
If BYU and Colorado win and Iowa State loses: Arizona State vs. BYU.
If Iowa State and Colorado win, BYU loses and West Virginia wins: Arizona State vs. Iowa State.
If Iowa State and Colorado win, BYU loses, Texas Tech wins and either Baylor or Cincinnati lose: Arizona State vs. Colorado.
Could Arizona State make Big 12 championship game with a loss?
Should Arizona State be upset by the Wildcats, there’s still a remote chance it makes the Big 12 championship game. However, it would need Colorado, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado to all lose as well.
Big 12 Week 14 schedule
Here is the schedule for the games that have or could have Big 12 title game implications:
Friday
Oklahoma State at Colorado, 12 p.m. ET, ABC
Saturday
Kansas at Baylor, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2
West Virginia at Texas Tech, 12 p.m. ET, FS1
Arizona State at Arizona, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox
TCU at Cincinnati, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Kansas State at Iowa State, 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Houston at BYU, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN