There has been $2.6 billion spent in these first 69 days of free agency, but with five weeks remaining until spring training, everyone but the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers still have Dunkin’ Donut-sized holes left to be filled.
While the New York Mets, Dodgers and Yankees stole the headlines by spending $1.45 billion this winter and three teams in the National League West dropped at least $180 million in free agency, one-third of all teams have shelled out less than the $10 million Juan Soto will earn the first six weeks on his new job with the Mets.
There are six teams who still haven’t spent a single penny in free agency. Yes, we’re talking about you, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners.
In the NL Central, the Chicago Cubs have spent just $43.3 million – $8 million less than Soto’s annual salary – which is still more than the combined total of expenditures by the rest of the NL Central. The Cincinnati Reds spent $24.4 million bringing back Nick Martinez and Brent Suter; the Pittsburgh Pirates gave Andrew McCutchen $5 million to return. The Brewers and Cardinals not only haven’t spent anything, but lost some of their highest-paid players.
There were eight teams willing to shell out at least $600 million for Juan Soto. Only the Mets were successful. And yet, the Yankees and Dodgers are the only Soto bidders to ultimately spend big money this winter.
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“It tells you that either a lot of teams just don’t have the money,’ one GM said, “or that they do have the money and are just waiting to see how they plan to spend it.
“We’re about to find out.’
While the free-agent market is expected to remain slow this week with general managers and agents tied up in arbitration cases preparing for filings on Thursday, here are the top 10 questions heading into the stretch drive of the offseason.
Where will Pete Alonso sign?
Remember in 2019 when Bryce Harper and Manny Machado didn’t sign their $300 million contracts until after the start of spring training?
Well, the same could happen again.
For Alonso, a return to the New York Mets seems to be the likely outcome, but on a deal shorter than Alonso desires. The Mets, after already committing $918.1 million this winter, including a stunning $765 million for Soto, are holding their ground on Alonso. While they’d like a reunion with the four-time All-Star who has hit 226 home runs, they simply aren’t willing to give him a long-term deal for at least $200 million, not after his career-worst .788 OPS last season. Then again, no one else is either. Teams are reluctant to eclipse Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162 million contract and Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million deal while Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, uses Prince Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million contract with Detroit Tigers in 2012 as a comparison.
Teams have been reluctant giving out long-term contracts this winter. There are only five free agents who have received contracts of five or more years: Soto, 15 years, $765 million; Max Fried, 7 years, $218 million; Corbin Burnes, 6 years, $210 million; Willy Adames, 7 years, $182 million; Blake Snell, 5 years, $182 million.
There currently are eight teams showing at least some interest in Alonso, including the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox. But in the game of first base musical chairs where 11 teams have a new first baseman, Alonso is still left standing. He may have no choice but to return to the Mets on a short-term deal with an opt-out.
What’s the latest Alex Bregman news?
The Houston Astros certainly wanted him back and offered a six-year, $156 million deal, but when talks stalled, they decided they couldn’t afford to wait any longer before moving on.
Bregman, 30, a two-time World Series champion, certainly is drawing plenty of interest, but just not at the $200 million price range … at least not yet.
Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora has been vocal in his desire to sign him, and the team has spent only $52.5 million. Yet, with Rafael Devers not wanting to move from third base, Triston Casas at first base, and Vaughn Grissom and top infield prospects on the way at second base, GM Craig Breslow is hesitant.
The Detroit Tigers, with manager A.J. Hinch lobbying for him, certainly have an opening. If they sign him, the Tigers could be the favorites to win the AL Central. But there’s still a wide gap in contract talks.
The Toronto Blue Jays, who continue to be left at the altar among free agents, have shown the strongest interest, but just how much more do they have to pay him than the next highest bidder with their high tax rates and distance from his home in Phoenix?
The Philadelphia Phillies would have interest, but only if they traded third baseman Alec Bohm, and their steep asking price is why Bohm still remains with the club.
The Mets could be the most intriguing team in the Bregman/Alonso sweepstakes. Several executives believe that if the Mets don’t sign Bregman and move third baseman Mark Vientos to first base, they’ll sign Alonso. And if they don’t sign Alonso, they’ll shift to Bregman.
The biggest obstacle for Bregman is that the St. Louis Cardinals also have a premier third baseman on the market, and Nolan Arenado said he’ll waive his no-trade clause for the Red Sox and Mets.
Where will Japanese pitching star Rōki Sasaki sign?
While the Los Angeles Dodgers have been the heavy favorites to sign Sasaki for the past year, with some teams convinced he already made up his mind, the San Diego Padres have emerged as the new choice among executives.
Sure, if he wants the bright lights, the marketing endorsements, and the chance to win the World Series every year, the Dodgers are his team. But if he wants a more tranquil market and to play with his mentor Yu Darvish, the Padres are his team.
Let’s be honest, the Padres, who have yet to spend any money in free agency, need Sasaki a whole lot more than the Dodgers.
They are without Joe Musgrove all season, starters Dylan Cease and Michael King are free agents after 2025, and even if Sasaki can’t pitch more than 120-140 innings his first year, the Padres may not be able to make a return trip to the postseason without him.
The Dodgers would love to have Sasaki, of course, but if they don’t sign him, they’ll be just fine.
Are the Dodgers and Yankees done with business?
No.
The Dodgers, who have spent $364 million this winter if you include the Tommy Edman extension, are never done.
They wasted no time shopping infielder Gavin Lux after signing Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim, and moved him Monday to the Cincinnati Reds for outfield prospect Mike Sirota and a draft pick. They have promised Mookie Betts the opportunity to be their everyday shortstop, but if he struggles defensively as he did a year ago, plans could always change. They certainly have the resources – money and prospects – to satisfy any deficiencies at any time.
The Yankees – who pounced quickly after Juan Soto turned down their $760 million offer by signing Fried to an eight-year, $218 million contract, trading for closer Devin Williams and outfielder Cody Bellinger, and signing first baseman Paul Goldschmidt – now are seeking a left-handed reliever and an infielder.
They are actively trying to deal starter Marcus Stroman and clear his $18 million salary. They have had talks with free-agent left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin and infielder Brendan Rodgers.
The best news for the Yankees is that the AL has gotten weaker this winter, with the National League teams outspending the AL by nearly $900 million.
Will anyone take the Toronto Blue Jays’ money?
The Blue Jays keep offering mountains of cash, but can’t find anyone to take it. They offered more than $700 million for Juan Soto. They were willing to spend at least $250 million for ace Corbin Burnes. They were outbid for Max Fried. They have an offer for slugger Anthony Santander and they’re showing strong interest in Bregman and Alonso, too.
Yet, they have spent only $15 million in free agency, begging for free agents to take their money in a critical season where anything short of a playoff berth is catastrophic.
This is the final year before Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette leave town as free agents.
Bichette is as good as gone, with no real interest in returning, friends say.
Guerrero and the Blue Jays are at least $100 million apart, with Guerrero seeking at least $450 million.
If Guerrero doesn’t receive an extension by spring training, he’ll test free agency. If Guerrero doesn’t return to the Blue Jays, he would love to be with the Red Sox, friends say, which may be why the Red Sox are hesitant in their pursuit of Bregman.
What’s the biggest surprise of MLB free agency?
The lack of activity among relievers.
The crème de la crème of the free agent market remains intact with no one budging yet.
Closers Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson and Carlos Estevez all remain unsigned.
There are only four relievers who have signed for more than $10 million and one is being converted into a starter, Clay Holmes, who signed a three-year, $38 million contract with the New York Mets. The others: Blake Treinen, 2 years, $22 million with the Dodgers; Yimi Garcia, 2 years, $15 million with the Blue Jays; and Aroldis Chapman, 1 year, $10.08 million with the Red Sox.
“The market is going to start moving here quick,’ one agent said. “There are too many good relievers out there. The trouble is that right now these teams think back-end relievers are interchangeable.’
What MLB teams still have moves to make?
Atlanta: Come on, you think GM Alex Anthopoulos, one of the most creative minds in the game, is going to just sit idly by without doing something this winter? They’ve already shed $69 million by trading outfielder Jorge Soler, letting starters Max Fried and Charlie Morton walk, and declined the option on catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Yet, so far, all they’ve spent is $1.9 million on free agents without making another trade.
Sure, they have ace Spencer Strider and 2023 MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. returning at some point after last year’s season-ending surgeries, but still, you know Anthopoulos has something up his sleeve. If he doesn’t act now, he certainly will at the trade deadline.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners are $80 million below the luxury tax, and can’t afford to waste the best starting rotation in baseball once again. They say they don’t have the money to grab Bregman or Alonso, or even acquire Arenado, but if they move veteran starter Luis Castillo, it will instantly free up money for offensive help.
Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have the deepest and youngest offensive talent in the game, but they need pitching. They just lost Burnes, after aggressively trying to bring him back, and replaced him with the 41-year-old Morton. They need more help. At some point, acquiring Castillo from the Mariners for some of their young hitters only makes sense.
Chicago Cubs: The Cubs made the biggest splash of the trade season by acquiring All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros, but also dumped Cody Bellinger and his $27.5 million contract on the New York Yankees to even out the money. They’ve only spent $43.3 million in free agency. It’s hard to imagine they won’t do something else to try finally toppling Milwaukee in the NL Central.
San Diego Padres: They haven’t made a single trade. They haven’t signed a single free agent. And, yes, GM A.J. Preller is still breathing. The Padres say they’re in a money crunch, shopping infielders Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth, and listening on starter Dylan Cease and batting champion Luis Arráez, but they’re sending mixed messages by also inquiring about high-priced talent. They will definitely make a move, and if they don’t land Sasaki in free agency, that urgency will only intensify.
San Francisco Giants: The Giants pounced early on shortstop Adames with an eight-year, $182 million contract and promised to be aggressive, but then stopped. They finished fourth in the NL West last season, and they still may be only the fourth-best team in the division with the Dodgers getting better and the Diamondbacks putting together a fabulous rotation. They have shown interest in Alonso, but not strong enough to be considered a front-runner by any stretch of the imagination. Surely, more moves await.
How much has each division spent?
NL East: $970.6 million
New York: $918.1 million
Philadelphia: $21.8 million
Washington: $29 million.
Atlanta: $1.7 million
Miami: $0
NL West: $700.6 million
Los Angeles: $299.5 million ($364 million including Tommy Edman extension)
Arizona: $210 million
San Francisco: $182 million
Colorado: $9.1 million
San Diego: $0
AL East: $397.5 million
New York: $235.5 million
Baltimore: $86 million
Boston: $52.5 million
Toronto: $15 million
Tampa Bay: $8.5 million
AL West: $341.6 million
Texas: $130.4 million
Los Angeles: $80.3 million
Athletics: $70.9 million
Houston: $60 million
Seattle: $0
AL Central: $138.4 million
Kansas City: $58 million
Cleveland: $42 million
Detroit: $30 million
Chicago: $8.4 million
Minnesota: $0
NL Central: $72.7 million
Chicago: $43.3 million
Cincinnati: $24.4 million
Pittsburgh: $5 million
Milwaukee: $0
St. Louis: $0
Who are the top MLB trade chips right now?
Infielders: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals; Luis Arráez, Padres; Nico Hoerner, Cubs; Alec Bohm, Phillies.
Starters: Luis Castillo, Mariners; Marcus Stroman, Yankees; Pablo Lopez, Twins; Dylan Cease, Padres; Jordan Montgomery, Diamondbacks; Taijuan Walker, Phillies; Jon Gray, Rangers.
Outfielders: Luis Robert, White Sox; Starling Marte, Mets; Taylor Ward, Angels; Nick Castellanos, Phillies.
Reliever: Ryan Pressly, Astros.
Who are the top free agents for 2025-2026?
Starters: Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks; Framber Valdez, Astros; Walker Buehler, Red Sox; Dylan Cease, Padres; Michael King, Padres; Ranger Suarez, Phillies; Zach Eflin, Orioles; Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks; Marcus Stroman, Yankees
Relievers: Devin Williams, Yankees; Luke Weaver, Yankees; Jordan Romano, Phillies; Liam Hendriks, Red Sox; Michael Kopech, Dodgers; Ryan Pressly, Astros
First base: Vladimir Guerrero, Blue Jays; Luis Arraez, Padres; Josh Naylor, Diamondbacks; Rhys Hoskins, Brewers
Second base: Gleyber Torres, Tigers
Shortstop: Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
Third base: Eugenio Suarez, Diamondbacks
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto, Phillies
DH: Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta; Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
Outfielders: Kyle Tucker, Cubs; Cody Bellinger, Yankees (opt-out)
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