Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward is the heavy betting favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. But what would happen if the Tennessee Titans picked Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders instead?
USA TODAY Sports used an NFL draft simulator to predict what would happen if the Titans made a different pick than the common consensus. Tennessee is still in need of a franchise quarterback, with former second-round pick Will Levis unable to prove he’s the answer.
If Sanders, not Ward, is the pick at No. 1, how would the rest of the NFL draft shake out? Where would Ward end up? How much of a domino effect would it have on the expectations for the remainder of picks?
Here’s how things shook out, according to Pro Football Focus’ simulator:
2025 NFL Draft: What if Shedeur Sanders is the first overall pick?
1. Tennessee Titans: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
It all starts here for this simulation. Sanders is not projected to be the first quarterback off the board, but what if the Titans saw something they really liked?
2. Cleveland Browns: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL)
Ward’s ‘slide’ down the draft board lasts all of one pick. The Browns are in need of a franchise quarterback after their ‘swing-and-miss’ attempt – as owner Jimmy Haslam put it – when they traded for Deshaun Watson and signed him to a massive extension. He’s set to miss a hefty portion if not all of the 2025 season after tearing his Achilles twice – once during the season and once during his recovery.
Cleveland traded for Eagles backup Kenny Pickett earlier this offseason before bringing back veteran quarterback Joe Flacco after he spent last year with Indianapolis. Ward would be poised to take the starting job with this pick.
3. New York Giants: Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado
If the Giants can’t get a top quarterback with the No. 3 overall pick, they might as well take the best overall prospect, since he’s still on the board. Hunter could contribute on either side of the ball for New York, though he’d fit better at cornerback after the Giants drafted Malik Nabers last year.
4. New England Patriots: Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State
Two quarterbacks going in the top two also means the Patriots get a chance to draft one of the best prospects in the class, who’s still on the board at No. 4 in this scenario. After a 2024 season in which New England was unable to get much pressure on opposing quarterbacks, it gets the best pass-rusher in the class to bolster its front seven.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
A return to relative normalcy at this point in the draft. The Jaguars are a betting favorite to draft Mason Graham to improve their top roster need on the defensive line. With two quarterbacks, Hunter and Carter off the board in the first four picks, Jacksonville sticks with the obvious pick: Graham.
6. Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Another ‘normal’ pick. The Raiders got their quarterback when they traded for Geno Smith earlier this offseason and have a top pass-catcher in tight end Brock Bowers. But they’re still missing a leading running back. Jeanty is far and away the top option at the position in this class, and Las Vegas rounds out its offense with the sixth overall pick.
7. New York Jets: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
New York needs to improve its blocking up front, especially with new quarterback Justin Fields coming to town. Membou is a nice start as the first tackle to come off the board in this simulation. A strong tackle with plenty of bulk on his 6-foot-4, 332-pound frame, Membou is also explosive with good length for the position.
8. Carolina Panthers: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
Rather than improving their lackluster pass rush, the Panthers pull the trigger on an additional pass-catcher for quarterback Bryce Young. Receivers Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker showed promise in their rookie campaigns last year, and Warren would provide an upgrade at the position over Tommy Tremble. Tremble signed a two-year contract this offseason, but last year was his first year surpassing 200 receiving yards. How the simulation feels about Warren’s fit with 2024 fourth-round pick Ja’Tavion Sanders is a mystery.
9. New Orleans Saints: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
Paulson Adebo is off in New York after free agency, and Marshon Lattimore is with Washington after a trade deadline move last year. New Orleans needs help in its defensive secondary, and with Sanders and Ward both off the board immediately, this wasn’t a great spot for the Saints to try to take a shot at quarterback, despite Derek Carr’s injury.
10. Chicago Bears: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Give quarterback Caleb Williams all of the weapons. Last year, they signed D.J. Moore to a four-year extension and drafted Rome Odunze. Rather than give Williams more protection up front, the simulator decided replacing Keenan Allen was more pressing. Regardless, it’s another pass-catcher to help out the quarterback and a good one for new head coach Ben Johnson to work with.
11. San Francisco 49ers: Will Campbell, OT, LSU
Trent Williams will be 37 in July, and Colton McKivitz will hit free agency next year. And even though San Francisco lost several of its starters on the defensive line, this simulation saw a good opportunity to fill another roster need with great value after Campbell slid out of the top 10. The LSU product could help improve a 49ers offensive line that ranked 14th in the NFL in pass-block win rate but 24th in run-block win rate in 2024.
12. Dallas Cowboys: Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia
The Cowboys lost defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence to the Seahawks in free agency before bringing back Dante Fowler Jr. for a second stint after his 10.5-sack season in Washington in 2024. With this pick, Dallas gets even more pass-rushing/run-stuffing help alongside star linebacker Micah Parsons. Williams is an explosive edge defender with great length and the potential to get even better as he gets stronger with an NFL training regimen.
13. Miami Dolphins: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
A pick for Golden primarily would serve as insurance for a potential future in which Tyreek Hill gets traded away from Miami. Both Hill and Jaylen Waddle had bad years in 2024, though quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missing six games may have played a much bigger part in that than either of their individual performances. Golden was a standout receiver at Texas with great ball skills and excellent speed (4.29-second 40-yard dash).
14. Indianapolis Colts: Jalon Walker, LB/Edge, Georgia
Rather than taking care of a very pressing need at tight end, the Colts pull the trigger to take care of a very pressing need at linebacker/edge rusher – Walker can play either. One year after Indianapolis made Laiatu Latu the first defensive player off the board at No. 15 overall, he recorded four sacks in a rotational pass-rush role. Kwity Paye led the team with eight sacks, but he’s set to hit free agency after next year. Indianapolis could use more juice on the defensive side of the ball if it doesn’t improve its tight end situation, and that’s what the Walker pick adds.
15. Atlanta Falcons: Mike Green, Edge, Marshall
Atlanta has to keep taking swings at edge rushers until it finds one that sticks. The Falcons have not been able to pressure opposing quarterbacks consistently for almost a decade now. Matthew Judon only had 5.5 sacks last year after Atlanta traded for him, and 2022 second-round pick Arnold Ebiketie led the team with just six sacks. The Falcons haven’t had a 10-sack player since Vic Beasley in 2016. The simulator seemed to understand this, and selected the player that led FBS with 17 sacks in 2024.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College
A mid-round run of edge rushers continues, with Arizona deciding to bolster its pass-rush attack one year after ranking 28th in the NFL in pass-rush win rate. Ezeiruaku finished second in FBS with 16.5 sacks last year and ranked third in tackles for a loss with 20.5. Given that the Cardinals didn’t have a single player with more than five sacks last year, Ezeiruaku gives them a great shot at getting more production from their pass rush.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M
A fourth straight edge rusher – and fifth in the last six picks – comes off the board right after the halfway point of the first round. The Bengals didn’t really have anyone besides Trey Hendrickson making plays off the edge last year, and his future in Cincinnati is murky at best. With Stewart, the AFC North contenders get a replacement for Hendrickson at worst and make their pass rush much, much scarier at best. Stewart didn’t have outstanding production in college, but his physical traits and athleticism project well at the next level.
18. Seattle Seahawks: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Not every pick can be a home run when a computer simulator is making them. The idea of taking a receiver to replace the losses of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf this offseason isn’t a bad one. However, in drafting Egbuka, the Seahawks would have three slot receivers – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Egbuka – and no true playmakers on the outside for new quarterback Sam Darnold. Perhaps things would have played out better for Seattle if the Bears and Dolphins addressed more pressing positions of need earlier in the round.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
The Buccaneers are returning all of their offensive starters in 2025 after re-signing wide receiver Chris Godwin. That puts them in position to tackle (no pun intended) defensive help in the first round of this year’s draft. Depending on how Walker is classified, Campbell is either the best or second-best off-ball linebacker in the 2025 class. He’s extremely athletic and would give Tampa Bay a player that can both play in pass coverage and rush the passer.
20. Denver Broncos: Walter Nolen, DT, Mississippi
Interior defenders Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers will both hit free agency after the 2025 season, so even after Denver brought in D.J. Jones on a three-year deal, getting more youthful depth at the position will be crucial. In Nolen, the Broncos would be getting a player with three years of starting experience in the SEC and one who can pressure the quarterback from the interior (6.5 sacks in 13 games in 2024).
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
With the top two quarterbacks off the board immediately, down at pick No. 21, the Steelers don’t force making a pick at the position to fill a need. Instead, they move to enhance their offensive line for whoever does end up starting under center in 2025.
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
Asante Samuel Jr., Eli Apple and Kristian Fulton all hit free agency this offseason, and the simulator was not satisfied with the additions of Benjamin St-Juste and Donte Jackson. Johnson can play both man and zone, and he’s fluid in his movements at cornerback while also bringing the requisite physicality for the position.
23. Green Bay Packers: Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
Green Bay needs to get some big help up front on the defensive side, and that’s exactly what the simulator had them do with the 23rd pick. Grant had 32 tackles – including 6.5 for a loss – and three sacks last year as the Wolverines’ nose tackle, playing next to No. 5 pick Mason Graham.
24. Minnesota Vikings: Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Aaron Jones is back in Minnesota in 2025, but he’s going to be 31 in December. The Vikings also signed Jordan Mason after something of a breakout year with the 49ers, but he suffered a shoulder sprain and high-ankle sprain last year. Hampton is the second-best running back prospect in the class behind Jeanty and gives the Vikings some extra depth at the position here, late in the first round.
25. Houston Texans: Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri
Stefon Diggs is in New England, and Tank Dell suffered a gruesome, season-ending knee injury late last year. If the Texans aren’t going to put work in early to improve an offensive line it blew up this offseason, it behooves them to add wide receiver help for quarterback C.J. Stroud. Burden ran a 4.41-second 40-yard dash in Indianapolis and was a first-team All-SEC receiver last year. He has plenty of experience with three years playing as a starter for the Tigers.
26. Los Angeles Rams: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
Sure, why not? After releasing wide receiver Cooper Kupp, the Rams could use an additional pass-catcher in the offense, and tight end is a fine position to add to with Tyler Higbee set to hit free agency next year. Loveland, along with Warren, is one of the top tight ends in the 2025 class. He’d be a fine piece for veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford to throw to with his excellent ball skills and consistent hands.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Booker, G, Alabama
Baltimore brought back left tackle Ronnie Stanley in free agency, but getting more help in the interior is a must for the Ravens in the draft. Booker started every game for Alabama over the last two seasons and earned a first-team All-SEC nod in 2024. His abilities as a run blocker stand out and would be a really nice fit for the run-heavy Ravens offense.
28. Detroit Lions: Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas
The Lions already have a couple of anchors at their tackle spots: Penei Sewell on the right side and Taylor Decker on the left. They also have a good swing-man option in Dan Skipper as additional depth behind them. But building more quality depth on the offensive line is never a bad thing, especially for a team that suffered the consequences of the injury bug that came for Detroit last year. Banks provides tackle depth and is also a potential option to replace Kevin Zeitler at a guard spot if the Lions so choose.
29. Washington Commanders: James Pearce Jr., Edge, Tennessee
Washington needs to bring in pass-rushing reinforcements after losing sack leader Dante Fowler Jr. to the Cowboys in free agency. Enter James Pearce Jr., who’s a lengthy edge rusher with tons of explosiveness coming off a first-team All-SEC season that featured 13 tackles for a loss and 7.5 sacks. With some added strength and developed technique, he has a future as a dangerous weapon off the edge in Washington.
30. Buffalo Bills: Grey Zabel, OT, North Dakota State
Zabel has played four of the five positions on the offensive line (everything but center) and projects well as an interior lineman at the pro level. But do the Bills really need more help on the offensive line, rather than prioritizing defensive help? This simulator seemed to think so. Perhaps the computer sees Zabel as the upcoming replacement for David Edwards, who hits free agency in 2026.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon
It really feels like the simulator would have been better off switching picks 30 and 31. The Chiefs have a bigger need on the offensive line, while the Bills need more help on their defensive line. Instead, the Chiefs select Harmon at 31 to pair with Chris Jones up the middle. Sure, Patrick Mahomes took six sacks in the Super Bowl, and sure, the Chiefs have major offensive line questions with Joe Thuney gone and Trey Smith playing on the franchise tag, but why not add an interior defender to make their run-stopping more stingy?
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
What do you get for the (team) that has everything? How about another Georgia defender. Add Starks to the growing list of former Bulldogs that general manager Howie Roseman employs in Philadelphia. They’ve got Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith and Kelee Ringo out there, and it got them a Super Bowl ring after the 2024 season. Starks is the best safety in the draft class, and Philadelphia could use him as a replacement for C.J. Gardner-Johnson, whom it traded to Houston in March.