Major League Baseball’s draft finally arrives July 13 from Cobb County’s Roxy Theater, and while it may not light up the Georgia skies like the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game to follow the next two nights, there’s no shortage of intrigue.
This much we know: Eight specific players are almost certain to go in the top 10 picks. Yet in what order and to which teams remains a game of dominos that will have to wait until the clock starts.
And 10 shortstops – from MLB legacies to high school stars to college All-Americas – will consume at least half of the top 20 picks, and while the game’s premier position tends to be a draft premium, this class boasts dudes who will almost assuredly stick on that position – and play at a very high level.
With that, USA TODAY Sports fires some darts one last time with a final mock draft before the pickin’ party commences Sunday:
1. Washington Nationals: Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) HS
This selection took on an entirely different level of intrigue when the Nationals blew out GM Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez just more than a week before the draft. They wisely left the remaining infrastructure intact, which should make their draft process flow smoothly, even as interim GM Mike DeBartolo is now the ranking voice in the room. We’re sticking to our guns here, even if as many as four guys might lay claim to this spot. Ultimately, the Nationals side with a potential building block rather than a ready-made ace with little present value as the franchise faces a total facelift.
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2. Los Angeles Angels: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
What a finishing kick for Anderson, who pitched a three-hit shutout against Coastal Carolina in the championship round of the College World Series, which followed a three-hit, seven-inning effort to beat Arkansas. Good luck splitting hairs between Anderson, Jamie Arnold and Liam Doyle, but we’ll side with Anderson’s K rate (NCAA-best 180 in 110 innings) and devastating pitch mix (think Max Fried, only firmer) with a rapid promotion in the offing in Anaheim.
3. Seattle Mariners: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Perhaps the most impactful pick in the top five, as plucking one of the top college arms or prep right-hander Seth Hernandez here would be a moderate disruption and likely introduce some exotic names into the overall top 10. But let’s stay consistent with this one as the Mariners opt for the physical presence and lineup punch that Arquette would bring up the middle.
4. Colorado Rockies: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS
What do you get the franchise that needs everything? They drafted Chase Dollander and got him to Coors Field quickly, and doing the same with deluxe lefty and fellow Tennessee product Liam Doyle would be highly tempting. Yet Willits, still just 17, represents the high-end building block the franchise lacks.
5. St. Louis Cardinals: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
In this scenario, the Cardinals have their choice of remaining elite college lefties and opt for Doyle’s greater swing-and-miss upside over Florida State’s Jamie Arnold, though they may prove us wrong come draft night.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS
Hernandez represents the draft’s other great wild card and a test case for how high clubs would be willing to draft a prep right-hander. We’ll stop just shy of calling Hernandez’s repertoire “generational,” but his high-90s fastball and pro-caliber changeup give him a significant springboard to move quicker than your average high school arm.
7. Miami Marlins: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS
Make it back-to-back Panthers here, with Carlson the last of the elite-elite prep shortstops off the board. Imagine a larger version of Masyn Winn, with a similar hose at shortstop and, at 6-1, potentially greater offensive upside.
8. Toronto Blue Jays: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
A real coup here for Toronto, getting a mature college arm with a big league-ready fastball-slider mix. Paired with last year’s No. 1, Trey Yesavage, the Blue Jays have the potential to quickly backfill a rotation that could lose Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman to free agency in consecutive years.
9. Cincinnati Reds: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
The Reds may stray out of their comfort zone and go bat here, but Witherspoon could unlock an even higher level developing in their pitching program as he’ll bring a high-90s fastball and low-90s slider into pro ball.
10. Chicago White Sox: Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
The White Sox quandary: Take the best of the next tier of prep shortstops or whichever advanced high-end college prospect almost mathematically certain to fall to them? In this case, it’s Irish, who popped 18 home runs with a .469 OBP for Auburn, and will likely have a permanent home in the outfield.
11. Athletics: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
A nice value for the Athletics, getting a consensus top-five guy before Bremner got off to a slow start for UCSB. But he finished strong and could reach the majors quick enough to try out that much-maligned mound in the A’s temporary Yolo County digs.
12. Texas Rangers: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS
The math makes it highly likely Texas lands a prep shortstop and Parker is still around, high enough to keep him away from a Mississippi State commitment. That’s two years in a row a Mississippi prep shortstop goes in the top dozen picks, joining Konnor Griffin (No. 9, Pittsburgh).
13. San Francisco Giants: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek (Ga.) HS
Let the run continue. Pierce is already 19, which may make some clubs shy away, but still has significant offensive upside and fits in what will be the first pick under the Buster Posey regime.
14. Tampa Bay Rays: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville (Ala.) HS
We’ll stick with Hall here, possessing the power upside and versatility the Rays value as the prep shortstop pool thins a bit.
15. Boston Red Sox: Gavin Kilen, INF, Tennessee
A Red Sox draftee out of high school, Kilen will do much better than the 13th round this time, with a strong offensive profile that saw him strike out just 27 times in 245 plate appearances, most of those against SEC pitching.
16. Minnesota Twins: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
The question is whether Houston’s very sturdy defense and developing but incomplete offensive profile slots him higher than the prep stars slated to go before him. It’s hard to see him dropping any further than the Twins.
17. Chicago Cubs: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
We’ll stubbornly keep Aloy ticketed to the Cubs, even as a strong postseason that ended in Omaha further buttressed his profile. He might have smoother actions around the bag than Arquette, even if his offensive punch grades out a notch below the fellow Hawaiian collegiate star.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson (Texas) HS
His offensive profile fits the Diamondbacks’ ethos very nicely: Contact-based and, at 5-10, 180, a compact frame that has the potential to grow into decent power.
19. Baltimore Orioles: OF Ethan Conrad, Wake Forest
The Orioles control three of the next 13 picks and can get creative with their bonus pool, certainly. We stick with Conrad and the classic O’s college hitter profile here.
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Andrew Fischer, INF, Tennessee
Bat first, figure out the position later. Fischer slammed 25 homers with a 1.205 OPS in an exuberant platform season, and is versatile enough defensively to move around some if the power doesn’t support a first base profile.
21. Houston Astros: Jace Laviolette, OF, Texas A&M
He’s going to be a great value somewhere, probably, as Laviolette faded from top three talk after a season slowed by contact issues, slumps and health. Wouldn’t be surprising if someone jumped on him sooner thanks to his elite raw power.
22. Atlanta Braves: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset (Ore.) HS
Quite a talent to land here, as the 6-8 prep lefty with a fastball that reached 97 mph gives them a daunting 1-2 punch with Cam Caminiti, currently thriving in low A one year after going 24h overall.
23. Kansas City Royals: Gavin Fien, INF, Great Oak (Calif.) HS
The prep version of Laviolette, in that someone may jump on him sooner based on equity already banked as opposed to an uneven platform year.
24. Detroit Tigers: Xavier Neyens, INF, Mt. Vernon (Wash.) HS
Big frame and potential big power in a nimble and athletic 6-4 package. In terms of offense, one of the top prep lefty bats available.
25. San Diego Padres: Sean Gamble, INF/OF, IMG (Fla.) Academy
Versatile and projectable, Gamble – at 6-foot-1, 190 – leveled up from Iowa to IMG Academy and is a potential impact player in the middle of the diamond.
26. Philadelphia Phillies: Slater de Brun, OF, Summit (Ore.) HS
The run of late-round high school players takes a few Philly targets off the board but they can still fulfill their prep preference with de Brun, a potential center fielder of the future whose speed will likely always trump his power.
27. Cleveland Guardians: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
The Guardians opt for Contact King, as Bodine finished the season with an absurd 24 strikeouts in 313 plate appearances while churning out a .915 OPS. As the Chanticleers reeled off 26 consecutive wins to reach the College World Series finals, Bodine’s stock rose along with it.
28. Kansas City Royals*: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
Paired with Fien, this should be a bonus pool-friendly pick as the Royals opt for the steady Stevenson, two years after making prep catcher Blake Mitchell the eighth overall pick.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks**: Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona
Would be a coup getting Summerhill this late, as he can man all three outfield positions and put up a .343/.459/.556 line to lead Arizona to the College World Series.
30. Baltimore Orioles**: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
The Dick Howser Trophy winner and ACC player of the year, Lodise is a solid defender who hit 19 home runs and should develop above-average pro power and likely stick at shortstop.
*- Prospect promotion incentive pick**- Free agent compensation pick
Note: The Mets, Yankees and Dodgers each received a 10-pick penalty on their first picks for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax and their first picks will be 38th, 39th and 40th overall, respectively.
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