The Fiesta Bowl semifinal pits No. 6 Ole Miss against No. 10 Miami, with the outcome likely decided in the trenches.
Miami’s success hinges on its defensive line dominating and its offense establishing a strong running game.
Ole Miss looks to counter with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss’s mobility and an offense that excelled against Georgia.
The Fiesta Bowl will be decided on the line of scrimmage.
The College Football Playoff national semifinal between No. 6 seed Mississippi and No. 10 Miami will come down to whether the Hurricanes can dictate things up front, much like they did in dispatching defending national champion Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
That win sent a clear message about how capably coach Mario Cristobal has installed his inside-out blueprint for rebuilding the program.
Ole Miss moved to 2-0 without Lane Kiffin by reversing a 21-12 deficit against No. 3 Georgia and winning the Sugar Bowl 39-34.
Whie losers to the Bulldogs during the regular season, the Rebels began to take control in the third quarter thanks to quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who finished with 362 yards and two touchdowns.
Even with Kiffin off to LSU, the offense totaled with 473 yards on 6.5 yards per play.
Key factors for Miami
Now the Hurricanes will face the same challenge of slowing Ole Miss. Whether Miami advances to the championship game depends on two factors: its ability to command the ball on offense and whether its defensive line can dominate for the second game in a row.
Offensively, the Hurricanes will look to establish the run behind junior Mark Fletcher Jr. and a rapidly improving front. If successful, a solid running game opens things up for senior quarterback Carson Beck, who played things safe against the Buckeyes and was without an interception for the fifth time in six games.
On defense, Miami’s defensive front has the potential to give the Rebels fits and take over the Fiesta Bowl. This group bullied the Buckeyes’ offensive line and fazed a normally unflappable Julian Sayin, who had his worst game since the season opener against Texas.
How Ole Miss beats Miami
But based on its play against No. 11 Tulane and Georgia, Ole Miss could make the Hurricanes one-dimensional by limiting Fletcher’s impact. While hit or miss during the regular season, the Rebels’ run defense held the Green Wave to 115 yards and the Bulldogs to 124 yards, both on 3.4 yards per carry.
Slowing down the Hurricanes’ ground game will place pressure on Beck to deliver through the air against a pass defense that ranked first in the SEC during the regular season in opposing completion percentage (56.2) and gave up only 6.4 yards per attempt.
Whether Ole Miss can protect Chambliss is likely one of the game’s deciding factors. The Rebels have given up 18 sacks in 14 games and held the Bulldogs to just three tackles for loss. The Hurricanes added five sacks against OSU and now has a Bowl Subdivision-best 46 on the year.
Chambliss is the game’s key player
Chambliss’s mobility will help. The senior is able to keep plays alive with his legs and make plays on the move, occasionally tucking and running to extend drives. He has run for 520 yards, second on the team, and eight scores.
If able to get into a rhythm, Chambliss, running back Kewan Lacey and Ole Miss will be hard to keep under wraps. One factor that played into Miami’s hands in the Cotton Bowl was Ohio State’s tendency to play at a much slower tempo than Ole Miss. The Rebels often sprint to the line as soon as a play ends and look to snap the ball soon after.
So Miami has to disrupt that rhythm by winning on first down and setting Chambliss into longer third-down conversions. But even that isn’t a sure thing. Heading into the Sugar Bowl, the senior led the SEC with a 154.3 efficiency rating on third down.