The challenge facing Ohio State is unmistakable. Ryan Day speeds toward either a whimpering end to a disastrous season, or a spectacular recovery.
Playoff will reveal whether Michigan simply beat Ohio State or stamped out the Buckeyes’ soul.
Ohio State will face a Tennessee defense that profiles as being every bit as good as Michigan’s unit that handcuffed the Buckeyes.

As I considered Ohio State’s rugged draw within the College Football Playoff bracket, I reflected on an iconic scene in the movie “Apollo 13.”

When NASA flight director Gene Kranz, played by Ed Harris, hears a co-worker saying that this would become the worst disaster in the space organization’s history, Kranz responds, “With all due respect, sir, I believe this is going to be our finest hour.”

It’s hyperbolic to compare the College Football Playoff to a space mission, but a stark dichotomy faces Ryan Day’s Buckeyes.

Ohio State underachieved this season with its reported $20 million roster, and the resulting No. 8 seed paints it into a corner. The Buckeyes must navigate No. 9 Tennessee, No. 1 Oregon, potentially No. 5 Texas in the semifinals and maybe No. 2 Georgia in the national championship game.

Oof.

Such a draw threatens to set up Ohio State for an early playoff exit to bookend a season Buckeyes fans would deem disastrous.

Alternatively, if Day spurs Ohio State to the national championship game, it would rank as his finest hour in a six-year tenure that includes an impressive win-loss record stained by repeated disappointments against Michigan and within the postseason.

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Ohio State must shake off Michigan to solve Tennessee defense

If not for the installation of 12-team playoff, Ohio State would be cast into some also-ran bowl game. This expanded postseason rescued a squad that boasts as much talent as any playoff qualifier, but the Buckeyes can’t shake the narrative that Day can’t win the big one.

Now, he faces four big ones.

An early playoff exit would crank up the heat on Day to such a temperature it would threaten to set the mercury to boil.

“We’re still breathing. We’re still alive,’ Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork said last week on 97.1-FM, a Columbus radio station. ‘The season’s not over. The book is not closed, right?”

Sounds encouraging, yeah? No, not really. Generally, when I hear a phrase like, ‘we’re still breathing,’ that doesn’t evoke optimistic thoughts.

This playoff will test how much Michigan crippled the Buckeyes.

Did Michigan simply beat Ohio State in the regular-season finale, or did the Wolverines suck the soul out of this team? Ohio State’s first-round game against Tennessee will shed light on that.

The Volunteers defense rates better than Michigan’s unit that limited Ohio State to 10 points and 252 yards. The Buckeyes remain without two starting offensive linemen due to injuries.

History tells us a talented team can recover from a late-season loss. Three years ago, Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC championship game, then won a rematch against the Crimson Tide a month later, as Kirby Smart captured the first of his two national championships in his sixth season. Year 6, hmm.

Perhaps a better comparison would be the 2017 season. Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, preventing the Tide from reaching the SEC championship game. Well-rested Alabama slipped into the playoff as the No. 4 seed, then crushed Clemson in a semifinal and outlasted Georgia in the national championship.

Unlike those teams, though, Ohio State must survive four playoff games, not two, and it’s impossible to overstate the indelible torment that comes from losing to Michigan.

Is Ryan Day nearing a whimpering finish or his finest hour?

Day, before this year’s rivalry flop, said past losses to Michigan rank among the worst moments of his 45 years on earth.

“Other than losing my father and a few other things, like it’s quite honestly, for my family, the worst thing that’s happened,” Day told WBNS, a Columbus TV station.

Days later, he lost to Michigan for a fourth consecutive time.

Buckeye seniors like defensive stars Jack Sawyer, Cody Simon, Lathan Ransom and several others remember every one of those haunting defeats.

Those losses to Michigan kept Ohio State from reaching the Big Ten championship game in every season since winning the conference title in 2020.

Because the Buckeyes didn’t reach the Big Ten title game, Day says they can’t complain about their seed, even though they beat No. 6 seed Penn State on the road last month.

A fifth or sixth seed would have provided the Buckeyes with a cleaner path into the semifinals. Ohio State joins Oregon and No. 2 Georgia as the only teams in this field to beat multiple playoff qualifiers, but the committee showed deference to teams that reached their conference championship game.

“It’s our responsibility to win the conference,” Day said. “… When you don’t do that, you put yourself at risk.”

The challenge facing Ohio State is unmistakable. Day speeds toward either a whimpering end to a disastrous sixth season, or a spectacular recovery as he claims his finest hour.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.